Are opinions precise? A guide to more precise language.

I pose the question because of the observations I have made of posts at a variety of social media sites or blogs.  You should include mine in this question. I've provided a rebuttal to a few questionable posts and of course, this wasn't well received by all.

I do consider social media to be an advertisement laden "free for all."

Critical thinking skills = the use of logic, reasoning and facts.

Here are a few observations
One common mistake for the writer is to use imprecise language, although sometimes that is deliberate. A common error by the reader is to infer a specific meaning from imprecise language, or to take another's experience and assume mine will be the same. That is not necessarily so. Sometimes we use imprecise language when we don't know the facts. Others may read what I or others write and assume it is factual. It may not be.

There are times when imprecise language is used for a purpose, or to promote an agenda.

There is a fair amount of hyperbole on social media sites, with all sorts of opining. From time to time there is intellectual dishonesty.  I cannot state what motivates others. However, from time to time I do read an opinion supported by imprecise language or incomplete data. Usually that data has been  selected to support a specific opinion or outcome to the exclusion of all other opinions or outcomes. That's an example of intellectual dishonesty.  For example, one approach is to state that my experience is "typical."  That is grossly misleading. Another approach is to say that "Many people have had the problem I have experienced." For example, if I experience a problem it is appropriate to say "I had a problem and others have experienced this" (if it has been previously reported) and then describe it. It is misleading to state that "my problem" has been experienced by "many" or even a "few". Why? Because we usually don't have any precise statistics to support these opinions and experiences, and terms such as "many" or "few" are very imprecise and subject to interpretation.

In other words, "my experience" might be useful and it might not, depending upon how it is framed. It might be indicative of the whole or it might not.  The description might be filled with my opinions and a dash of facts to make it look authentic, or to justify my opinions.  It is useful to be aware that things do break, that maintenance workers make mistakes and so on. But how useful?

But Facebook asks "What's on your mind?" and that's what we get. Sometimes just blabber, sometimes a mind dump, and sometime just rants.

This unfortunately sets the stage for unrealistic expectations. After all, if we begin to think that opinions are facts, we then are in a place where fiction is construed to be reality. More on that in a later post.

For example, if I state that my Roadtrek experiences are "typical" the reader will be led to believe that my experiences "have the distinctive qualities or characteristics of a particular type of person or thing".  In other words, you, dear reader, will have the same experiences I have if you have a Roadtrek. That is of course, not a certainty.

If I were to say "Many people have problems with their Onan generator" that means that "a large number of" people have had problems with their Onan generator. Or, it might be construed that "the majority of people" have had problems with their Onan generator.   Both conclusions cannot be determined from the use of the word "Many". In other words, conclusions based on the word "many" are probably false.

On Facebook in particular, it seems that some of the readers think that what is written is indicative of everyone. Or it is accurate. That's not necessarily so. It might be very imprecise. It might be hyperbole, or hubris or simply baloney.

Opinions
"Opinions" are defined as "a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge."  If opinions are not based on fact or knowledge, then what are they? It seems some do really believe that "opinions" are facts and are presented as such. But they aren't.

FB isn't alone in this, and merely provides an advertisement laden opportunity for us to present our version of reality. A variety of blogs also provide rose covered views of everything from winter trekking to using composting toilets in Class Bs. There are FB groups ranging from "Living the RV dream" to "RV Hell". They are two different sides of the same coin.

It is important to remember that opinions expressed are those of the writer and that includes this blog. Whatever is expressed may never be "typical", or even useful (that's an altogether higher standard).  If one person's experiences were always "typical" then I guess I could expect to win the lottery because my neighbor did? Or should I expect to die in a car crash because an acquaintance did?

Some of us may absolutely love our RV and will ceaselessly write glowingly and enthusiastically about it. It is also possible that we are frustrated or unhappy and we may have an axe to grind. That disenchantment will color whatever is written. Some are clever about this, and so they may provide some knowledge or useful information but use it as an opportunity to also present their agenda. Yes, Virginia, people do have personal agendas. Some are harmless, and some are not.

How can we tell who is who? We can't unless the author is very careful in his/her languaging and writes with integrity. In the absence of precise language, a reasonable alternative is to provide some information to the reader about our condition in life, our expectations and a broad view of our experiences. These things do color what we write. I've made it a point to create this blog, which not only forms a journal of sorts, but is also a body of work with data where appropriate. The reader can decide if I am full of hogwash or not. I do not set landmines for the unsuspecting.

The reader has the responsibility to use critical thinking skills if seeking solutions. After all, everything we read on Facebook isn't intended to simply be entertainment, or  complaint session. Or is it?

Example of looking for a select answer
When we post questions on social media, we are obviously looking for guidance. Some of the questions are predisposed to a specific answer, and some responders may be inclined to provide what is sought.  For example, recently there were some FB posts on RV sites about winterizing. Some might ask "Is winterizing really necessary?" That very question may be the result of a personal position called "I don't want to winterize" and responding can set up some serious consequences. According to Roadtrek "winterizing" is an absolute necessity under specific weather conditions. To imply to anyone that it is otherwise is leading them down a primrose path. It may provide them with the answer they want to hear, but that path is an unreasonable one. Ergo the title of this post.

So what's real?
First, if you read it on an opinion forum, it possibly isn't real as in completely accurate or authentic. This is why "news" might not be news. Some of what we read is opinion, perspective and so on.  I can't say how much is or isn't. Some is untruthful or misleading.   Today in "news" the first thing to realize is that this is a really big planet with 7 billion inhabitants. Whatever is considered to be newsworthy has to be seriously edited; there simply isn't sufficient time or space for all "news" on a planet inhabited by about 7 billion human beings.

The first thing to do when reading FB or any other social stuff is to use one's critical thinking skills.

When one posts, one must decide what to post and what not to post. That is a form of self-censorship or self-selection. People have a reason for posting what they post. As a reader, ask yourself "what is their purpose in posting this?"

Then look for words indicative of opinions or attempts to manipulate the reader. Here are a few examples:

• I think......
• I believe......
• I feel.....
• In my opinion......
• The best......
• I strongly believe.....
• From my point of view......

Here's a link to a list of opinion words and phrases:

opinion_words_and_phrases.pdf

Imprecise Words
Another approach for inserting opinions is to use imprecise words. Such imprecise words include:

• Can
• Few
• Fair
• Frequently
• Many
• Most
• Occasionally
• Often
• Regularly
• Several
• Temporary

It is recognized that imprecise words can alter the meaning of any points that are presented in writing. For example, the use of “can” instead of “will”.  Stating  “I can earn $1 million this year if I work hard” is not the same as “I will earn $1 million this year if I work hard”. The use of "can" indicates that earning $1 million is merely possible. Using "will" changes that earning to definite.

It is important to use "strong" words to express ideas and to accurately indicate to the reader those things on which they should focus.  Selecting a precise word greatly improves the clarity of a sentence.  That is important in writing.

You Purchased a Rv and are Picking it up. Now What?

A little Reading - A few of the manuals that came with the Roadtrek

Once we have made the committment, selected the product we want and made the order, or selected it from the showroom floor, there comes the day that payment transfers hands, and a lot of papers are to be signed.

Wait a moment!

One of the big parts of this handoff ceremony is getting a walk-through of the features of your new rig. Be it a Roadtrek or whatever, these are complex vehicles. Your walk-through will serve two purposes:

1. Provide you with training and education about your new RV
2. Provide you with a demonstration that all of the features and accessories are working. 

Some of these vehicles are really complex. If this is your first RV, or if you had one which is more than 10 years old, you might be shocked by some of the technology in today's RVs.

Please do a very thorough checkout.

Once you take delivery, then all of the issues become "warranty issues." These are treated differently than point of sale issues. So it is best to identify any issues before taking delivery.

Once you do take delivery, you may find yourself in a long queue of people wanting service.

Some Good Ideas

Arrange for the full feature demonstration. However, also arrange to stay in the RT overnight so you get to try it and make a list a questions that occur to you during that overnight stay. You will find that the "walk-through" is fast paced. If you want a good trekking experience there are things you will need to do, and things the dealer will have to do. This post is directed to Roadtrek purchasers, but the points made work well with all RVs.

Keep in mind that the moment you drive off of the lot, you should know enough to connect to "shore power", spend the night and a day at a campground, be able to connect to fresh water,  fill the onboard fresh water tanks, switch between city water connection or tank water and operate the hot water heater. You should know how to dump gray and black water tanks. You should know what the various readouts and displays mean. You should be able to operate the refrigerator, and cook your meals. You should know how to use the thermostat and select furnace or heat pump or AC, assuming you have these. However, a lot of this will require you reading the various appliance manuals that came with your RV.

Be prepared to spend some time reading all of these manuals, and you will have to do some experimentation. That will be a wonderful exercise during your first trek. I suggest you plan one for mild weather.

So how to accomplish this in a short walk-through? You might think this is trivial, but a couple of weeks after taking delivery of our 210P we headed south to warmer weather. En route the weather changed from 50F during the day to about 5F at night. We found ourselves winterizing in a gas station as darkness fell. "Be Prepared" is a good motto for kids (Boy Scouts) and if 13 year olds can master this, so should adults. But it might be a bit more intimidating than you expect. Your walk-through is your opportunity to be educated and to be prepared.

1. Before going to the dealer make a list of everything you ordered and every accessory. Every appliance, option on the RT, etc.
2. If you can, download and print out a copy of the current manual from the RT website and bring it with you so you can mark it up with notes. Keep the one provided by the dealer as a clean backup. 
3. At the dealer, review all of the documentation. Do you have manuals for all of the features and accessories of your RV?
4. Have the dealer demonstrate everything completely to you and take notes when they do. This includes battery systems, generator, any "auto start/stop", DC power systems. 
5. Discuss the DC fusing and the AC breakers. Look at the propane detector and CO monitor and know how to reset and test these.
6. Ask them to show you the batteries and ask about "resets" and so on.
7. Ask them to show you the DC contactor and point out any DC circuit breakers or other "hidden" fuses.
8. Ask them to show you the battery isolator so you know what it is.
9. Have any solar panel system including controller demonstrated and understand the readouts.
10. Have any inverter demonstrated and ask about "resets" or fuses or circuit breakers it might have. 
11. Fill the water tanks both from city water and via the door mounted fill points. Partially drain the tanks and note the operation of the tank level indicator.
12. Have the valving demonstrated to you for operating from inside fresh tank or exterior tank (210P). Note the positions of all of the valves for this.
13. Run fresh water via the tanks with pump and via city. Have them tell you how to isolate the hot water heater and describe and show you the anode in that heater.
14. Ask about how to winterize and the procedures.
15. Try absolutely everything including the macerator and dump both gray and black tanks, so you open and close the gate valves, etc.
16. Run the propane appliances be it hot water heater, furnace and range top. Have them show you how to open and close the propane valve and where it is.
17. Try the stereo and TV systems; bring DVD and Blue-Ray discs with you, assuming your RV has a blue ray player.
18. Know how to switch the TV antenna from roof top to cable, or Satellite, is so equipped.
19. Try all interior lights and all doors and latches.
20. These are complex vehicles and treat them accordingly.
21. Also ask about a list of optional, user provided "accessories" including water pressure regulator, water filter, and even a shore power protection device. Get their knowledgeable opinion.
22. You don't have to jump in and buy anything until you are confident but not before taking a trek. I understand Roadtrek says you don't need a120V power protection device. Ask wny.
23. Have some fun.
24. Once you have taken delivery, make a list of all of the accessories. 
25. Download pdf files of all of the accessories; furnace, hot water heater, roof fan, air conditioner, microwave/convection oven, refrigerator, water pump, macerator, TV, DVD player, TV powered antenna, etc. If you can, look for "Owners Manuals" as well as "Service Manuals" and "Parts Manuals". These will serve you well in the years ahead. 

Now you have the  basic information, head on down the road and see how knowledgeable you are.

Have Fun!

Note:

The above is based upon a September 2017 post I made on Facebook

A Piney Squirrel Neighbor

Our summer location has had a bumper crop of pine cones this year. With them came a piney squirrel. That little critter would sit high in the tree and cut loose green pine cones. At about 6am each morning we'd be greeted with a constant "thump, thump, thump" as the squirrel jumped from branch to branch cutting lose pine cones. There was also the occasional "thwack" as a cone hit the AC.

I'd go up on the roof and clear off the sticky cones, loaded with pine sap. The trees are finally barren of green cones and the sap is reduced.  The pace of cone dropping has moderated, but I've got quite a few piles on the ground.

I've added a few photos and a short video. That squirrel can strip a cone in 30 seconds or less. Thanks to his activities, we also have quite a few black capped chickadees and other birds hanging around, picking through the leftovers.

The "roof" is not that of the Roadtrek, thank heaven. It is a travel trailer on our summer "base camp" in Michigan. That base will shortly be shut down and we'll be Roadtrekking toward the southwest. Any plans for FL and the Florida Keys are now on hold pending the outcome of the recovery after this year's hurricane season.

Hurricanes

On the Bayou, after Katrina

Floated into the Bayou by Katrina

Hurricanes are dangerous. I've had the opportunity to experience two hurricanes. I rode out a Category 4 hurricane, and the eye passed directly overhead at about 2:00am. The wall has the highest winds. Was like a freight train running by that want on, and on, and on. Not fun. Afterwards I had to live off of the water in the tub for a few days. I also was in New Orleans but left on the last departing airline flight before Katrina made landfall, and then returned to assist a client in the recovery of their business.

Eclipse August 21, 2017

It was very overcast this morning, a little sun and that quickly went away as more clouds blew into the area.

However, at 1:23pm there was a small break, not total, but we were able to catch a glimpse of the eclipse.

Steel Crazy - Steel Band

Yesterday we attended an evening "Concert in the Park" at the veranda of the Wheaton, IL public library. Wheaton is the 32nd safest city in America, according to NeighborhoodScout’s 2017 list of the 100 safest cities.

The featured entertainment was "Steel Crazy" a musician/steel band from nearby Aurora, Illinois.

Comparing AGM and Lithium RV Battery Systems

Comment added August 10, 2017; see the notes at the bottom of this post, in particular #5.

A couple of years ago, I considered swapping my AGM batteries for Lithium (LiFePO4). I looked again in January 2017 and I again decided against doing that.

What's the problem? It's simply dollars and sense.

As can be seen above, running both 200AH lithium and AGM battery systems to 80% depth of discharge (DoD) the cost of the AGMs is sufficiently less. So, while the lithium batteries are more "elegant" from an engineering perspective they may not provide more benefits and at a higher cost. Read on for the details.

Here's the background:

Battery life: Lithium 2000 cycles at 80% DoD. AGM 700 cycles at 80% DoD.

Cost for 200 AH: Lithium with BMS = $1,939. AGM = $450.

As can be seen above, here is the arithmetic:

AGM: 2100 cycles at 80% DoD requires (3) sets of batteries, or 3 x $450 = $1,350.
Lithium: 2000 cycles at 80% DoD requires (1) set of batteries at $1,939.

Conclusion: use AGM batteries, install a better battery monitor and run the batteries to 80% DoD. Compared to Lithium, save $589 while getting about the same performance and none of the low temperature headaches.

Other Considerations: 

1. AGMs weigh more than LiFEPO4 batteries, so if I needed more than 200AH of battery capacity (more than 10 hours @ 16.8A) then I should re-evaluate an alternative to the 200AH of AGMs I have. 
2. Installing lithium ion batteries will also require additional electronics, including a charger and an Energy Management System, at additional cost.  My AGM system includes the necessary electronics, I added a digital Volt/Ammeter, so all I have to do is replace the batteries at the required time.
3. AGM batteries can be charged at below 32F. LiFEPO4 batteries have to be heated to be charged at 32F and below. In my case (AGM), that means no heaters and no wasted electrical energy warming up lithium ion batteries prior to charging. In my case, that makes installations simpler. I can keep the 200AH of AGM batteries in the outside compartment. I had decided that if I chose lithium ion batteries that I would install them inside the coach. I would have had to give up valuable real estate (square footage) to do that. 
4. Because Lithium ion batteries weigh less than AGM batteries, if I really needed 400AH or so, I'd look at the volume and weight differences. But that is not currently an issue for me. 
5. Over on social media, putting info about the relative merits of AGM batteries versus Lithium (LiFePO4) usually causes a bit of a stir. Here is my response to one social media rebuttal:  "I agree about the "light duty", but that also changes the cycles for AGMs and what' the point of buying a lot of capacity not to use it? What is missing in the chart you provided is remaining capacity and that does make a difference. The charts for the AGMs I'm using indicate about 60% capacity remaining after 80% DoD and 700 cycles. It is a known AGM characteristic that capacity does gradually decline, and by 700 cycles capacity decrease to 50-60% is usual. That certainly can have an impact on [battery] selection. Specifics may vary from manufacture to manufacturer. I used the table of the AGM battery manufacturer in my coach, and it might be accurate or not. I also based cost on the actual cost of the batteries (AGM's in my coach and the current price of the LiFePO4's I was considering). The lithiums don't include installation, which would definitely not be drop in. One other issue to beware of in AGMs is full discharge. The battery numbers vary based upon "relative" DoD. In other words, some battery specs go all the way down to 10.5 volts, which is a dead AGM battery. Other charts use relative terms in which the 0% AGM charge is 11.66V or so, which is actually about 20% DoD. Everything I've seen indicates that AGMs when fully charged generally have about 80-100% capacity which gradually diminishes. Lithium batteries also experience capacity loss, although that doesn't seem to become significant (below 80%) until about 400- 500 cycles. I'm sure there are installers who have better data based upon dozens or hundreds of installations. On the other hand, they might not want to provide data that kills the golden goose.